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Геополитика·Хезболла

Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?

Market icon
Геополитика·Хезболла

Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?

$477,178 Объем

30 июн. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$477,178 Объем

Polymarket

17 апреля

$402,066 Объем

41%

30 апреля

$68,628 Объем

80%

31 мая

$12,198 Объем

89%

30 июня

$11,389 Объем

91%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes and ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon since March 2026, no official announcement of suspending the offensive has occurred, despite diplomatic pressures. Following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran on April 8, Israel explicitly excluded Lebanon, launching major attacks that day and pressing assaults on border areas ahead of talks. Historic direct Israel-Lebanon envoy meetings hosted by the Trump administration in Washington on April 14 yielded unclear progress, with Hezbollah urging cancellation and Israeli forces instructed to reduce—but not halt—strikes. President Trump announced impending leader-level discussions, signaling potential de-escalation pathways amid U.S. calls to avoid undermining the Iran truce, though military escalation risks persist.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.

Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.

Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Объем
$477,178
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 10, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes and ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon since March 2026, no official announcement of suspending the offensive has occurred, despite diplomatic pressures. Following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran on April 8, Israel explicitly excluded Lebanon, launching major attacks that day and pressing assaults on border areas ahead of talks. Historic direct Israel-Lebanon envoy meetings hosted by the Trump administration in Washington on April 14 yielded unclear progress, with Hezbollah urging cancellation and Israeli forces instructed to reduce—but not halt—strikes. President Trump announced impending leader-level discussions, signaling potential de-escalation pathways amid U.S. calls to avoid undermining the Iran truce, though military escalation risks persist.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.

Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.

Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Объем
$477,178
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 10, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «30 июня» с 91%, за ним следует «31 мая» с 89%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 91¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 91%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $477.2K с момента запуска рынка Apr 10, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?», просмотри 4 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?» — «30 июня» с 91%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 91%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 мая» с 89%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Израиль объявляет о приостановке наступления в Ливане...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.