Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with models showing an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 and high persistence through year-end, is the dominant short-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.20–1.29°C range for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term warming trends from prior record years (2023–2025 at roughly 1.4–1.5°C) provide a elevated starting point, while natural variability, model spread in peak El Niño strength, and early-summer atmospheric conditions introduce the observed split between outcomes above 1.29°C and the 1.20–1.24°C bin. Official June updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and refined seasonal forecasts will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 39%
1.10–1.14ºC 39%
1.25–1.29ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
<1.10ºC
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
39%
1.15–1.19ºC
39%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
38%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.15–1.19ºC 39%
1.10–1.14ºC 39%
1.25–1.29ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
<1.10ºC
$5 Объем
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Объем
39%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Объем
39%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Объем
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Объем
38%
>1.29ºC
$352 Объем
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with models showing an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 and high persistence through year-end, is the dominant short-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.20–1.29°C range for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term warming trends from prior record years (2023–2025 at roughly 1.4–1.5°C) provide a elevated starting point, while natural variability, model spread in peak El Niño strength, and early-summer atmospheric conditions introduce the observed split between outcomes above 1.29°C and the 1.20–1.24°C bin. Official June updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and refined seasonal forecasts will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$528Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with models showing an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 and high persistence through year-end, is the dominant short-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.20–1.29°C range for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term warming trends from prior record years (2023–2025 at roughly 1.4–1.5°C) provide a elevated starting point, while natural variability, model spread in peak El Niño strength, and early-summer atmospheric conditions introduce the observed split between outcomes above 1.29°C and the 1.20–1.24°C bin. Official June updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and refined seasonal forecasts will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$528Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with models showing an 82% chance of emergence by May–July 2026 and high persistence through year-end, is the dominant short-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.20–1.29°C range for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term warming trends from prior record years (2023–2025 at roughly 1.4–1.5°C) provide a elevated starting point, while natural variability, model spread in peak El Niño strength, and early-summer atmospheric conditions introduce the observed split between outcomes above 1.29°C and the 1.20–1.24°C bin. Official June updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and refined seasonal forecasts will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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