**The 83% market-implied probability on “No” for a 2026 engagement between Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet reflects sustained trader skepticism despite the couple’s three-year relationship and recent public affirmations.** They have cohabited since at least early 2026, appeared together at major 2026 awards events (including the Oscars and Critics’ Choice, where Chalamet publicly thanked his “partner of three years”), and showed PDA as recently as the July FIFA World Cup final. However, no verified proposal, ring sightings, or official statements have materialized, and earlier 2026 reports of private engagement discussions have not produced visible progress. Celebrity timelines, Chalamet’s post-awards career focus, and the pair’s history of privacy plus periodic split rumors create high barriers to resolution before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts—such as fall/winter awards season or holiday appearances—could shift sentiment, but current trader consensus treats an announcement in the remaining months as improbable.