Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Miami points to an overnight low near 80–81°F on July 5 amid a persistent summer pattern of high humidity, light southeast winds, and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling over the warm Atlantic waters, whose elevated sea-surface temperatures this season have raised the baseline minimum. Traders assign nearly equal weight to the 78–79°F and 80–81°F bands because small differences in cloud cover or timing of showers can shift the actual low by 1–2°F. Historical July climatology centers around 78–80°F at Miami International Airport, so outcomes above 82°F or below 76°F require notable forecast deviations that current model consensus does not support.