Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Miami on June 22 points to an overnight low near 80–82°F under partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and minimal frontal influence, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 82–83°F bin at 41%. Subtropical June climatology features average daily minima around 76–78°F, yet persistent high pressure and elevated Gulf moisture have supported recent observed lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Ensemble model consensus shows limited overnight cooling potential before dawn, with only modest thunderstorm chances that could locally suppress temperatures into the high 70s. Traders appear to be pricing in this warm baseline rather than rarer cooler anomalies.