Current short-range model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a persistent heat dome maintaining elevated overnight temperatures across the Paris basin through July 11, limiting radiative cooling under light winds and high humidity. This setup supports implied probabilities clustering around 20–24 °C lows, with 21 °C edging the field at 30 %. Subtle differences among these outcomes hinge on forecast spread in boundary-layer moisture and any marginal Atlantic flow that could shave a degree or two versus continued subsidence suppressing mixing. Updated guidance expected from the next 00Z and 12Z runs will clarify whether the minimum settles near the lower or upper end of the favored range before resolution.