Recent cooling after France’s late-June heatwave, with Météo-France and ensemble models showing overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies, drives trader focus on 14–16 °C minima for Paris on July 2. Post-frontal northeasterly flow and dew-point suppression are expected to produce the day’s lowest readings near dawn, while daytime highs remain in the mid-20s. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover creates the tight clustering around 14 °C (43 % implied probability), with lower-probability tails reflecting residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France vigilance bulletins in the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.