Strong meteorological forecasts for June 13, 2026, underpin the near-certain market consensus around a 16°C low in Paris, with models from Météo-France and European ensembles projecting clear skies, light winds, and stable overnight conditions yielding a minimum near that threshold at the official Paris-Le Bourget station. This aligns with seasonal baselines for mid-June, where average lows hover near 13–14°C but recent high-pressure dominance has kept readings milder. Trader positioning reflects high confidence in these model runs, which show limited spread and minimal risk of significant cooling. Only a late-model shift introducing unexpected radiative cooling or localized fog could realistically push the actual minimum to 15°C or below, though such revisions remain unlikely given current observational data.