**A persistent early summer heatwave across northern France is anchoring trader expectations for Paris's June 25 overnight low near 24–25 °C.** Recent model guidance and Météo-France analyses show a strong high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and advection of warm subtropical air, which limits radiative cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated well above seasonal normals of roughly 14–16 °C. Ensemble forecasts cluster around 24–26 °C for the urban heat-island-adjusted minimum, producing the tight spread visible in current market prices (24 °C at 20.5 %, 25 °C at 24 %, 23 °C and 26 °C each near 20 %). Slight differences among leading outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect, all of which can shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away and no major model shifts expected before then, the narrow clustering around 24–25 °C captures the consensus view of limited overnight cooling under continued anticyclonic conditions.