The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in Paris on June 4?
Lowest temperature in Paris on June 4?
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$15,223 Объем
$15,223 Объем
4 июн. 2026 г.
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$15,223 Объем
$15,223 Объем
4 июн. 2026 г.
7°C or below
$1,408 Объем
No
8°C
$273 Объем
No
9°C
$430 Объем
No
10°C
$416 Объем
No
11°C
$1,110 Объем
No
12°C
$659 Объем
No
13°C
$1,120 Объем
No
14°C
$1,206 Объем
No
15°C
$856 Объем
Yes
16°C
$1,358 Объем
No
17°C or higher
$6,387 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Объем
$15,223Дата окончания
4 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$15,223Дата окончания
4 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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