Recent meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models project a Tokyo minimum temperature of 18°C on May 25, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and seasonal warming that align with late-spring climatology. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show minimal spread around this value, with surface observations and upper-air data reinforcing the outlook over cooler alternatives. This near-certain market consensus reflects strong model agreement and the absence of disruptive frontal systems. A rapid, unforecasted cold-air intrusion or station-specific microclimate variation could theoretically shift the recorded low, though such deviations remain improbable given current atmospheric stability and verification timelines.