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icon for Major solar storm by April 30?

Major solar storm by April 30?

icon for Major solar storm by April 30?

Major solar storm by April 30?

<1% вероятность
Polymarket

$13,998 Объем

<1% вероятность
Polymarket

$13,998 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$13,998
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$13,998
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Major solar storm by April 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 0% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 0¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 0%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Major solar storm by April 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $14K с момента запуска рынка Mar 16, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Major solar storm by April 30?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Major solar storm by April 30?» составляет 0% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Major solar storm by April 30?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.