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icon for SCOTUS аннулирует запреты AR-15?

SCOTUS аннулирует запреты AR-15?

icon for SCOTUS аннулирует запреты AR-15?

SCOTUS аннулирует запреты AR-15?

Да

56% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

56% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, lifting the implied probability that the justices will invalidate such restrictions to 55.5 percent. With a 6-3 conservative majority and recent signals from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch that AR-15-style rifles qualify as “arms in common use” under the Heller-Bruen framework, traders see a clear path to striking down the laws. The Court’s June expansion of Second Amendment protections in the Hawaii property-access case reinforced expectations that the same textual-historical approach will apply here. Oral arguments are scheduled for fall 2026, with a decision likely by June 2027; the outcome hinges on whether Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Barrett joins the bloc favoring invalidation, leaving the result closely contested until briefing and argument clarify their positions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$4
Дата окончания
1 авг. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, lifting the implied probability that the justices will invalidate such restrictions to 55.5 percent. With a 6-3 conservative majority and recent signals from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch that AR-15-style rifles qualify as “arms in common use” under the Heller-Bruen framework, traders see a clear path to striking down the laws. The Court’s June expansion of Second Amendment protections in the Hawaii property-access case reinforced expectations that the same textual-historical approach will apply here. Oral arguments are scheduled for fall 2026, with a decision likely by June 2027; the outcome hinges on whether Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Barrett joins the bloc favoring invalidation, leaving the result closely contested until briefing and argument clarify their positions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$4
Дата окончания
1 авг. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

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«SCOTUS аннулирует запреты AR-15?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jul 1, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущий фаворит для «SCOTUS аннулирует запреты AR-15?» — «Верховный суд США отменяет запрет на AR-15?» с 56%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 56%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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