Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing in the 6700–6800 range on April 8, 2026, aligning with the index's official settlement at 6,782.81 after a 2.5% surge from the prior day's 6,616.85 close. This strong positioning was driven by a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire deal averting escalation, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and triggering a 16–20% oil price collapse to under $95 per barrel, alleviating inflation fears and igniting a broad relief rally—evident in the Dow's 1,300-point gain and Nasdaq's 2.8% advance. With exchange-verified data now public, challenges would require unprecedented revisions to closing prints, though trader capital overwhelmingly backs the outcome.