Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on S&P 500 year-end 2026 positioning reflects balanced risks, with the <$6,000 outcome holding a slim 26.5% implied probability amid March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains and gasoline surges—prompting the Fed to maintain federal funds at 3.5%-3.75% and delay cuts into late 2026 per economist polls and futures pricing. Strong Q1 earnings beats and 17% full-year EPS growth forecasts from FactSet underpin higher bins like $7,500-$8,000 (12.5%), aligning with Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target from current levels near 7,165, yet geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation cap upside consensus. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC projections, and Q2 earnings trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЧто закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
Что закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
< $6,000 27%
$7,000–$7,500 26%
$6,000–$6,500 18%
>$8,000 15%
$20,985 Объем
$20,985 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
27%
$6,000–$6,500
18%
$6,500–$7,000
18%
$7,000–$7,500
19%
$7,500–$8,000
13%
>$8,000
15%
< $6,000 27%
$7,000–$7,500 26%
$6,000–$6,500 18%
>$8,000 15%
$20,985 Объем
$20,985 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
$12,479 Объем
27%
$6,000–$6,500
$1,404 Объем
18%
$6,500–$7,000
$2,279 Объем
18%
$7,000–$7,500
$1,064 Объем
19%
$7,500–$8,000
$1,727 Объем
13%
>$8,000
$2,032 Объем
15%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on S&P 500 year-end 2026 positioning reflects balanced risks, with the <$6,000 outcome holding a slim 26.5% implied probability amid March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains and gasoline surges—prompting the Fed to maintain federal funds at 3.5%-3.75% and delay cuts into late 2026 per economist polls and futures pricing. Strong Q1 earnings beats and 17% full-year EPS growth forecasts from FactSet underpin higher bins like $7,500-$8,000 (12.5%), aligning with Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target from current levels near 7,165, yet geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation cap upside consensus. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC projections, and Q2 earnings trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$20,985Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on S&P 500 year-end 2026 positioning reflects balanced risks, with the <$6,000 outcome holding a slim 26.5% implied probability amid March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains and gasoline surges—prompting the Fed to maintain federal funds at 3.5%-3.75% and delay cuts into late 2026 per economist polls and futures pricing. Strong Q1 earnings beats and 17% full-year EPS growth forecasts from FactSet underpin higher bins like $7,500-$8,000 (12.5%), aligning with Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target from current levels near 7,165, yet geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation cap upside consensus. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC projections, and Q2 earnings trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$20,985Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely contested sentiment on S&P 500 year-end 2026 positioning reflects balanced risks, with the <$6,000 outcome holding a slim 26.5% implied probability amid March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains and gasoline surges—prompting the Fed to maintain federal funds at 3.5%-3.75% and delay cuts into late 2026 per economist polls and futures pricing. Strong Q1 earnings beats and 17% full-year EPS growth forecasts from FactSet underpin higher bins like $7,500-$8,000 (12.5%), aligning with Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target from current levels near 7,165, yet geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation cap upside consensus. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI, May FOMC projections, and Q2 earnings trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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