Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЧто закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
Что закроет S&P 500 (SPX) в конце 2026 года?
>$8,000 36%
$7,500–$8,000 23%
$7,000–$7,500 22%
$6,500–$7,000 10%
$41,371 Объем
$41,371 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
6%
$6,000–$6,500
6%
$6,500–$7,000
10%
$7,000–$7,500
22%
$7,500–$8,000
23%
>$8,000
36%
>$8,000 36%
$7,500–$8,000 23%
$7,000–$7,500 22%
$6,500–$7,000 10%
$41,371 Объем
$41,371 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
< $6,000
$21,017 Объем
6%
$6,000–$6,500
$2,365 Объем
6%
$6,500–$7,000
$4,577 Объем
10%
$7,000–$7,500
$2,726 Объем
22%
$7,500–$8,000
$4,204 Объем
23%
>$8,000
$6,482 Объем
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Объем
$41,371Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Объем
$41,371Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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