Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition for The Drama's opening weekend box office, with 15-16 million at 43% implied probability edging 13-14 million at 40%, driven by solid presales tracking 13-18 million amid Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's star power as counterprogramming to family fare over Easter weekend. Early critical reception sits fresh at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes from 50-plus reviews, but mixed verdicts labeling it uncomfortable and satirical rather than pure rom-com have capped upside beyond 17 million (18.5% and lower). Key swings hinge on Thursday previews, word-of-mouth from A24's niche audience, and competition from They Will Kill You, with $28 million budget underscoring profitability needs above 12 million.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено"The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
"The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
15-16m 41%
13-14m 38%
14-15m 38%
12-13m 36%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
<10m
32%
10-11m
34%
11-12m
34%
12-13m
36%
13-14m
38%
14-15m
38%
15-16m
41%
16-17m
21%
>17m
16%
15-16m 41%
13-14m 38%
14-15m 38%
12-13m 36%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
<10m
$1 Объем
32%
10-11m
$0 Объем
34%
11-12m
$0 Объем
34%
12-13m
$0 Объем
36%
13-14m
$0 Объем
38%
14-15m
$3 Объем
38%
15-16m
$0 Объем
41%
16-17m
$146 Объем
21%
>17m
$127 Объем
16%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition for The Drama's opening weekend box office, with 15-16 million at 43% implied probability edging 13-14 million at 40%, driven by solid presales tracking 13-18 million amid Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's star power as counterprogramming to family fare over Easter weekend. Early critical reception sits fresh at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes from 50-plus reviews, but mixed verdicts labeling it uncomfortable and satirical rather than pure rom-com have capped upside beyond 17 million (18.5% and lower). Key swings hinge on Thursday previews, word-of-mouth from A24's niche audience, and competition from They Will Kill You, with $28 million budget underscoring profitability needs above 12 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Объем
$278Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition for The Drama's opening weekend box office, with 15-16 million at 43% implied probability edging 13-14 million at 40%, driven by solid presales tracking 13-18 million amid Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's star power as counterprogramming to family fare over Easter weekend. Early critical reception sits fresh at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes from 50-plus reviews, but mixed verdicts labeling it uncomfortable and satirical rather than pure rom-com have capped upside beyond 17 million (18.5% and lower). Key swings hinge on Thursday previews, word-of-mouth from A24's niche audience, and competition from They Will Kill You, with $28 million budget underscoring profitability needs above 12 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$278Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition for The Drama's opening weekend box office, with 15-16 million at 43% implied probability edging 13-14 million at 40%, driven by solid presales tracking 13-18 million amid Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's star power as counterprogramming to family fare over Easter weekend. Early critical reception sits fresh at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes from 50-plus reviews, but mixed verdicts labeling it uncomfortable and satirical rather than pure rom-com have capped upside beyond 17 million (18.5% and lower). Key swings hinge on Thursday previews, word-of-mouth from A24's niche audience, and competition from They Will Kill You, with $28 million budget underscoring profitability needs above 12 million.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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