**One Nation leads the market for third place on primary votes at 69% amid a tight three-way contest in Victoria’s November 28 state election.** Recent polls from August show the Liberal-National Coalition on 27-32%, One Nation on 22-23.5%, and Labor on 23-26%, with the Greens steady near 12-13%. One Nation’s rise accelerated through mid-2026 as voters shifted away from both major parties, coinciding with Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation has since announced multiple candidates and regional tickets, drawing strongest support outside inner Melbourne. Traders appear to view the Coalition as the most likely primary leader and Labor as retaining enough base support to edge ahead of One Nation for second, leaving One Nation positioned for third in the current polling trajectory. Minor parties and the Greens remain at much lower implied probabilities consistent with their stable but lower primary shares.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПарламентские выборы в Виктории: 3-е место
Парламентские выборы в Виктории: 3-е место
One Nation 69%
Greens 13.2%
Labor 5.2%
Liberal–National <1%
$18,605 Объем
$18,605 Объем
28 нояб. 2026 г.
One Nation
69%
Greens
13%
Labor
5%
Liberal–National
<1%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 69%
Greens 13.2%
Labor 5.2%
Liberal–National <1%
$18,605 Объем
$18,605 Объем
28 нояб. 2026 г.
One Nation
$6,194 Объем
69%
Greens
$163 Объем
13%
Labor
$6,507 Объем
5%
Liberal–National
$1,251 Объем
<1%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,312 Объем
<1%
Animal Justice
$917 Объем
<1%
Libertarian
$1,347 Объем
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Объем
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads the market for third place on primary votes at 69% amid a tight three-way contest in Victoria’s November 28 state election.** Recent polls from August show the Liberal-National Coalition on 27-32%, One Nation on 22-23.5%, and Labor on 23-26%, with the Greens steady near 12-13%. One Nation’s rise accelerated through mid-2026 as voters shifted away from both major parties, coinciding with Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation has since announced multiple candidates and regional tickets, drawing strongest support outside inner Melbourne. Traders appear to view the Coalition as the most likely primary leader and Labor as retaining enough base support to edge ahead of One Nation for second, leaving One Nation positioned for third in the current polling trajectory. Minor parties and the Greens remain at much lower implied probabilities consistent with their stable but lower primary shares.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Объем
$18,605Дата окончания
28 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads the market for third place on primary votes at 69% amid a tight three-way contest in Victoria’s November 28 state election.** Recent polls from August show the Liberal-National Coalition on 27-32%, One Nation on 22-23.5%, and Labor on 23-26%, with the Greens steady near 12-13%. One Nation’s rise accelerated through mid-2026 as voters shifted away from both major parties, coinciding with Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation has since announced multiple candidates and regional tickets, drawing strongest support outside inner Melbourne. Traders appear to view the Coalition as the most likely primary leader and Labor as retaining enough base support to edge ahead of One Nation for second, leaving One Nation positioned for third in the current polling trajectory. Minor parties and the Greens remain at much lower implied probabilities consistent with their stable but lower primary shares.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Объем
$18,605Дата окончания
28 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**One Nation leads the market for third place on primary votes at 69% amid a tight three-way contest in Victoria’s November 28 state election.** Recent polls from August show the Liberal-National Coalition on 27-32%, One Nation on 22-23.5%, and Labor on 23-26%, with the Greens steady near 12-13%. One Nation’s rise accelerated through mid-2026 as voters shifted away from both major parties, coinciding with Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation has since announced multiple candidates and regional tickets, drawing strongest support outside inner Melbourne. Traders appear to view the Coalition as the most likely primary leader and Labor as retaining enough base support to edge ahead of One Nation for second, leaving One Nation positioned for third in the current polling trajectory. Minor parties and the Greens remain at much lower implied probabilities consistent with their stable but lower primary shares.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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