Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent lead on primary votes (typically 27–32%) and two-party preferred margins (52–57%) over Labor. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained recovery in support, with the party’s primary vote remaining in the low-to-mid 20s amid voter concerns over government performance. One Nation’s elevated primary support has fragmented the vote but preference flows have generally favored the Coalition in modeled outcomes. These trends underpin the market’s elevated probability for a Liberal–National victory while keeping Labor’s implied chances low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLiberal–National 80%
Labor 19%
One Nation 2.9%
Greens <1%
$11,431 Объем
$11,431 Объем
28 нояб. 2026 г.
Liberal–National
80%
Labor
19%
One Nation
3%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 80%
Labor 19%
One Nation 2.9%
Greens <1%
$11,431 Объем
$11,431 Объем
28 нояб. 2026 г.
Liberal–National
$6,582 Объем
80%
Labor
$1,960 Объем
19%
One Nation
$2,526 Объем
3%
Greens
$363 Объем
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent lead on primary votes (typically 27–32%) and two-party preferred margins (52–57%) over Labor. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained recovery in support, with the party’s primary vote remaining in the low-to-mid 20s amid voter concerns over government performance. One Nation’s elevated primary support has fragmented the vote but preference flows have generally favored the Coalition in modeled outcomes. These trends underpin the market’s elevated probability for a Liberal–National victory while keeping Labor’s implied chances low.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Объем
$11,431Дата окончания
28 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent lead on primary votes (typically 27–32%) and two-party preferred margins (52–57%) over Labor. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained recovery in support, with the party’s primary vote remaining in the low-to-mid 20s amid voter concerns over government performance. One Nation’s elevated primary support has fragmented the vote but preference flows have generally favored the Coalition in modeled outcomes. These trends underpin the market’s elevated probability for a Liberal–National victory while keeping Labor’s implied chances low.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Объем
$11,431Дата окончания
28 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent lead on primary votes (typically 27–32%) and two-party preferred margins (52–57%) over Labor. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained recovery in support, with the party’s primary vote remaining in the low-to-mid 20s amid voter concerns over government performance. One Nation’s elevated primary support has fragmented the vote but preference flows have generally favored the Coalition in modeled outcomes. These trends underpin the market’s elevated probability for a Liberal–National victory while keeping Labor’s implied chances low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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