Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes to 47% no among likely voters and State Navigate at 51%-45%, reflect trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's congressional redistricting constitutional amendment, with 3-6% and 6-9% victory margins leading at 34.5% and 25%. The partisan divide—Democrats favoring the measure to empower the General Assembly over the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, Republicans opposing—keeps the contest tight in this low-turnout special election, compounded by mixed early voting signals like Quantus Insights' April 13 projection of a slight 50.3%-48.2% no edge. High early turnout nearing 1 million ballots, stronger initially in GOP-leaning districts, underscores uncertainty; final early voting through April 18 and Election Day April 21 could tip the balance via differential mobilization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 35%
Pass 6-9% 25%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,589 Объем
$10,589 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
Pass 15%+
2%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
8%
Pass 6-9%
25%
Pass 3-6%
35%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
18%
Pass 3-6% 35%
Pass 6-9% 25%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,589 Объем
$10,589 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
Pass 15%+
$1,225 Объем
2%
Pass 12-15%
$471 Объем
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,187 Объем
8%
Pass 6-9%
$412 Объем
25%
Pass 3-6%
$1,221 Объем
35%
Pass <3%
$457 Объем
17%
No Pass
$5,616 Объем
18%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes to 47% no among likely voters and State Navigate at 51%-45%, reflect trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's congressional redistricting constitutional amendment, with 3-6% and 6-9% victory margins leading at 34.5% and 25%. The partisan divide—Democrats favoring the measure to empower the General Assembly over the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, Republicans opposing—keeps the contest tight in this low-turnout special election, compounded by mixed early voting signals like Quantus Insights' April 13 projection of a slight 50.3%-48.2% no edge. High early turnout nearing 1 million ballots, stronger initially in GOP-leaning districts, underscores uncertainty; final early voting through April 18 and Election Day April 21 could tip the balance via differential mobilization.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Объем
$10,589Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes to 47% no among likely voters and State Navigate at 51%-45%, reflect trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's congressional redistricting constitutional amendment, with 3-6% and 6-9% victory margins leading at 34.5% and 25%. The partisan divide—Democrats favoring the measure to empower the General Assembly over the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, Republicans opposing—keeps the contest tight in this low-turnout special election, compounded by mixed early voting signals like Quantus Insights' April 13 projection of a slight 50.3%-48.2% no edge. High early turnout nearing 1 million ballots, stronger initially in GOP-leaning districts, underscores uncertainty; final early voting through April 18 and Election Day April 21 could tip the balance via differential mobilization.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Объем
$10,589Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes to 47% no among likely voters and State Navigate at 51%-45%, reflect trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's congressional redistricting constitutional amendment, with 3-6% and 6-9% victory margins leading at 34.5% and 25%. The partisan divide—Democrats favoring the measure to empower the General Assembly over the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, Republicans opposing—keeps the contest tight in this low-turnout special election, compounded by mixed early voting signals like Quantus Insights' April 13 projection of a slight 50.3%-48.2% no edge. High early turnout nearing 1 million ballots, stronger initially in GOP-leaning districts, underscores uncertainty; final early voting through April 18 and Election Day April 21 could tip the balance via differential mobilization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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