Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 63.5% implied probability due to its record domestic presales exceeding $50 million three months before the December 18 release, driven by strong trailer performance and Avengers-scale ensemble hype that outpaces typical tracking. This positions the MCU tentpole for a potential $260–300 million domestic opening, leveraging holiday timing and crossover appeal despite sharing the weekend with Dune: Messiah. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s 36.5% reflects its actual $360 million July debut—the year’s largest so far—but traders see limited upside for it to remain the annual leader. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit near 0.1% each, as their November and December slots lack comparable presale momentum or franchise event status. Key upcoming catalysts include further presale updates and final tracking before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 64%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 37%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$172,196 Объем
$172,196 Объем
Avengers: Doomsday
64%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
37%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 64%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 37%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$172,196 Объем
$172,196 Объем
Avengers: Doomsday
64%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
37%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 63.5% implied probability due to its record domestic presales exceeding $50 million three months before the December 18 release, driven by strong trailer performance and Avengers-scale ensemble hype that outpaces typical tracking. This positions the MCU tentpole for a potential $260–300 million domestic opening, leveraging holiday timing and crossover appeal despite sharing the weekend with Dune: Messiah. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s 36.5% reflects its actual $360 million July debut—the year’s largest so far—but traders see limited upside for it to remain the annual leader. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit near 0.1% each, as their November and December slots lack comparable presale momentum or franchise event status. Key upcoming catalysts include further presale updates and final tracking before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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