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Политика·Джеймс Коми

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Политика·Джеймс Коми

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$125,784 Объем

Polymarket

$125,784 Объем

Polymarket

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$7,977 Объем

33%

John Brennan

$6,677 Объем

38%

James Clapper

$2,658 Объем

24%

Tom Homan

$29,882 Объем

20%

Brandon Johnson

$1,887 Объем

26%

James Comey

$9,244 Объем

17%

Letitia James

$1,340 Объем

25%

Loretta Lynch

$472 Объем

11%

Gavin Newsom

$24,611 Объем

9%

Adam Schiff

$6,790 Объем

8%

Candace Owens

$257 Объем

7%

Anthony Fauci

$8,290 Объем

7%

Kash Patel

$153 Объем

7%

Lisa Cook

$598 Объем

7%

Hillary Clinton

$15,653 Объем

6%

John Kerry

$127 Объем

6%

Pam Bondi

$1,546 Объем

5%

Lee Jun-seok

$555 Объем

27%

Bill Clinton

$434 Объем

4%

Joe Biden

$2,047 Объем

4%

Barack Obama

$2,857 Объем

4%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$275 Объем

50%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,190 Объем

50%

Susan Rice

$262 Объем

48%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent legal and political developments have shaped trader focus on this multi-outcome market, with attention on former intelligence officials and international figures facing potential charges. Ongoing congressional oversight, special counsel reviews, and enforcement actions tied to past policy decisions or classified matters continue to generate speculation about indictments before the 2027 cutoff. Domestic cases involving border enforcement leaders and local officials add further variables, while international proceedings against ex-leaders reflect separate judicial timelines. Resolution hinges on actual arrests rather than charges alone, with traders monitoring court filings, DOJ announcements, and confirmation hearings through the remainder of 2026 for signals that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$125,784
Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent legal and political developments have shaped trader focus on this multi-outcome market, with attention on former intelligence officials and international figures facing potential charges. Ongoing congressional oversight, special counsel reviews, and enforcement actions tied to past policy decisions or classified matters continue to generate speculation about indictments before the 2027 cutoff. Domestic cases involving border enforcement leaders and local officials add further variables, while international proceedings against ex-leaders reflect separate judicial timelines. Resolution hinges on actual arrests rather than charges alone, with traders monitoring court filings, DOJ announcements, and confirmation hearings through the remainder of 2026 for signals that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$125,784
Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Who will be arrested before 2027?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 24 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Benjamin Netanyahu» с 50%, за ним следует «Mahmoud Khalil» с 50%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 50¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 50%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Who will be arrested before 2027?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $125.8K с момента запуска рынка Apr 30, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Who will be arrested before 2027?», просмотри 24 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Who will be arrested before 2027?» — «Benjamin Netanyahu» с 50%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 50%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Mahmoud Khalil» с 50%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Who will be arrested before 2027?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.