Ongoing investigations into Obama-era officials over 2016 Russia-related intelligence assessments have produced grand jury activity and referrals but no charges or arrest warrants against the former president himself. The Department of Justice has cited insufficient new evidence and statutes of limitations as barriers, while presidential immunity for official acts further reduces exposure. Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability to no arrest before 2027 because no active criminal proceedings target Obama directly and past viral claims have consistently lacked substantiation. Late developments such as unexpected evidence from the ongoing probes or shifts in prosecutorial priorities could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$21,908 Объем
$21,908 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$21,908 Объем
$21,908 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing investigations into Obama-era officials over 2016 Russia-related intelligence assessments have produced grand jury activity and referrals but no charges or arrest warrants against the former president himself. The Department of Justice has cited insufficient new evidence and statutes of limitations as barriers, while presidential immunity for official acts further reduces exposure. Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability to no arrest before 2027 because no active criminal proceedings target Obama directly and past viral claims have consistently lacked substantiation. Late developments such as unexpected evidence from the ongoing probes or shifts in prosecutorial priorities could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Объем
$21,908Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing investigations into Obama-era officials over 2016 Russia-related intelligence assessments have produced grand jury activity and referrals but no charges or arrest warrants against the former president himself. The Department of Justice has cited insufficient new evidence and statutes of limitations as barriers, while presidential immunity for official acts further reduces exposure. Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability to no arrest before 2027 because no active criminal proceedings target Obama directly and past viral claims have consistently lacked substantiation. Late developments such as unexpected evidence from the ongoing probes or shifts in prosecutorial priorities could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$21,908Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Ongoing investigations into Obama-era officials over 2016 Russia-related intelligence assessments have produced grand jury activity and referrals but no charges or arrest warrants against the former president himself. The Department of Justice has cited insufficient new evidence and statutes of limitations as barriers, while presidential immunity for official acts further reduces exposure. Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability to no arrest before 2027 because no active criminal proceedings target Obama directly and past viral claims have consistently lacked substantiation. Late developments such as unexpected evidence from the ongoing probes or shifts in prosecutorial priorities could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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