Roger Federer’s 2022 retirement after the Laver Cup, driven by chronic knee issues that ended his competitive play following the 2021 Wimbledon quarterfinals, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a 2026 return. At age 44, the eight-time Wimbledon champion has limited himself to exhibitions and ceremonial appearances, including a high-profile Australian Open practice session and tribute earlier this year, with no main-draw entry, wildcard request, or tour announcement signaling a comeback. The grass-court surface and late-June timeline add further logistical hurdles, while his consistent emphasis on non-competitive involvement reinforces the market’s near-certainty. A last-minute health turnaround or surprise wildcard remains theoretically possible but faces steep barriers given the absence of supporting developments.