Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the deposit facility's steady 2.00% level post the March 19 decision amid a resilient euro area economy. However, March CPI inflation accelerated to 2.6%—up sharply from February's 1.9% and the highest since July 2024—alongside upward revisions to ECB staff projections at 2.6% for 2026, has lifted 28.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike, fueled by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and sticky inflation fixings above 2%. Hawkish minutes from March underscore vigilance, with the April 30 meeting as the next key catalyst for policy signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
No change 66%
25 bps Increase 29%
50+ bps increase 3.4%
25 bps decrease 1.2%
$21,625 ปริมาณ
$21,625 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
66%
25 bps Increase
29%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 66%
25 bps Increase 29%
50+ bps increase 3.4%
25 bps decrease 1.2%
$21,625 ปริมาณ
$21,625 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,763 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,418 ปริมาณ
1%
No change
$5,114 ปริมาณ
66%
25 bps Increase
$4,428 ปริมาณ
29%
50+ bps increase
$4,903 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the deposit facility's steady 2.00% level post the March 19 decision amid a resilient euro area economy. However, March CPI inflation accelerated to 2.6%—up sharply from February's 1.9% and the highest since July 2024—alongside upward revisions to ECB staff projections at 2.6% for 2026, has lifted 28.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike, fueled by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and sticky inflation fixings above 2%. Hawkish minutes from March underscore vigilance, with the April 30 meeting as the next key catalyst for policy signals.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,625วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the deposit facility's steady 2.00% level post the March 19 decision amid a resilient euro area economy. However, March CPI inflation accelerated to 2.6%—up sharply from February's 1.9% and the highest since July 2024—alongside upward revisions to ECB staff projections at 2.6% for 2026, has lifted 28.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike, fueled by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and sticky inflation fixings above 2%. Hawkish minutes from March underscore vigilance, with the April 30 meeting as the next key catalyst for policy signals.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,625วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting the deposit facility's steady 2.00% level post the March 19 decision amid a resilient euro area economy. However, March CPI inflation accelerated to 2.6%—up sharply from February's 1.9% and the highest since July 2024—alongside upward revisions to ECB staff projections at 2.6% for 2026, has lifted 28.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike, fueled by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and sticky inflation fixings above 2%. Hawkish minutes from March underscore vigilance, with the April 30 meeting as the next key catalyst for policy signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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