Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
No change <1%
$1,056,849 ปริมาณ
$1,056,849 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
No
25 bps decrease
No
No change
No
25 bps Increase
Yes
50+ bps increase
No
25 bps Increase 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
No change <1%
$1,056,849 ปริมาณ
$1,056,849 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$111,059 ปริมาณ
No
25 bps decrease
$131,618 ปริมาณ
No
No change
$249,356 ปริมาณ
No
25 bps Increase
$272,346 ปริมาณ
Yes
50+ bps increase
$292,470 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,056,849วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,056,849วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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