Eileen Gu holds birthright U.S. citizenship under the 14th Amendment as a San Francisco native with an American father, and U.S. law restricts revocation to narrow grounds such as naturalization fraud or specific criminal conduct rather than athletic representation of another nation. No formal State Department expatriation, DOJ denaturalization filing, or legislative proposal has advanced despite renewed scrutiny tied to her Chinese government payments, 2026 Olympic participation for China, and public criticism from some political figures. Trader consensus at 98.5% on “No” by December 31, 2026, reflects these structural protections, the absence of any active administrative process, and the compressed resolution window. Late shifts remain possible only through unexpected congressional rule changes or newly surfaced evidence meeting statutory thresholds, neither of which has emerged.