Legal and procedural barriers explain the near-certain trader consensus that Zohran Mamdani’s U.S. citizenship will not be revoked before 2027. Naturalized in 2018 after arriving as a child, Mamdani faces allegations from Republican lawmakers regarding prior statements and affiliations, yet immigration experts emphasize that denaturalization demands clear, convincing evidence of willful material misrepresentation during the application process—an extreme remedy pursued only in rare cases with documented fraud. No federal investigation or court filing has advanced since the 2025 political calls, and the Justice Department bears a high evidentiary burden in civil or criminal proceedings. While a successful DOJ action based on newly substantiated claims could theoretically shift outcomes within the window, historical patterns and the absence of qualifying evidence sustain the overwhelming market pricing.