Recent House action advancing a stopgap continuing resolution has reinforced trader expectations against a funding lapse. In mid-July, Republican leaders introduced legislation extending current spending levels for most agencies into early December, with Speaker Mike Johnson scheduling a prompt floor vote to clear the measure well ahead of the September 30 deadline. This follows the conclusion of earlier 2026 partial shutdowns tied to DHS and immigration enforcement disputes. With November midterms approaching, both parties face incentives to minimize operational disruptions and political risk. Although full-year appropriations remain stalled, the procedural momentum for an early CR underpins the current 79.5% implied probability that no shutdown occurs by October 1.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
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Oct 2, 2026
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ใหม่
Oct 2, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent House action advancing a stopgap continuing resolution has reinforced trader expectations against a funding lapse. In mid-July, Republican leaders introduced legislation extending current spending levels for most agencies into early December, with Speaker Mike Johnson scheduling a prompt floor vote to clear the measure well ahead of the September 30 deadline. This follows the conclusion of earlier 2026 partial shutdowns tied to DHS and immigration enforcement disputes. With November midterms approaching, both parties face incentives to minimize operational disruptions and political risk. Although full-year appropriations remain stalled, the procedural momentum for an early CR underpins the current 79.5% implied probability that no shutdown occurs by October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,369วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent House action advancing a stopgap continuing resolution has reinforced trader expectations against a funding lapse. In mid-July, Republican leaders introduced legislation extending current spending levels for most agencies into early December, with Speaker Mike Johnson scheduling a prompt floor vote to clear the measure well ahead of the September 30 deadline. This follows the conclusion of earlier 2026 partial shutdowns tied to DHS and immigration enforcement disputes. With November midterms approaching, both parties face incentives to minimize operational disruptions and political risk. Although full-year appropriations remain stalled, the procedural momentum for an early CR underpins the current 79.5% implied probability that no shutdown occurs by October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,369วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent House action advancing a stopgap continuing resolution has reinforced trader expectations against a funding lapse. In mid-July, Republican leaders introduced legislation extending current spending levels for most agencies into early December, with Speaker Mike Johnson scheduling a prompt floor vote to clear the measure well ahead of the September 30 deadline. This follows the conclusion of earlier 2026 partial shutdowns tied to DHS and immigration enforcement disputes. With November midterms approaching, both parties face incentives to minimize operational disruptions and political risk. Although full-year appropriations remain stalled, the procedural momentum for an early CR underpins the current 79.5% implied probability that no shutdown occurs by October 1.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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