Elon Musk’s July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week set the dominant timeline, aligning with xAI’s rapid post-Grok 4.5 cadence after the mid-July launch of its 1.5T predecessor. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of an August 6–7 release window, supported by third-party confirmations from Arena.ai and reports of improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same V9 base. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 adds urgency to xAI’s compressed schedule, while a larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. Market-implied odds hinge on whether xAI meets this accelerated target or encounters last-minute training or deployment slips common in frontier model rollouts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
$36,356 ปริมาณ
Aug 7, 2026
August 7
8%
August 14
86%
$36,356 ปริมาณ
August 7
$21,301 ปริมาณ
8%
August 14
$15,055 ปริมาณ
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week set the dominant timeline, aligning with xAI’s rapid post-Grok 4.5 cadence after the mid-July launch of its 1.5T predecessor. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of an August 6–7 release window, supported by third-party confirmations from Arena.ai and reports of improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same V9 base. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 adds urgency to xAI’s compressed schedule, while a larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. Market-implied odds hinge on whether xAI meets this accelerated target or encounters last-minute training or deployment slips common in frontier model rollouts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,356วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week set the dominant timeline, aligning with xAI’s rapid post-Grok 4.5 cadence after the mid-July launch of its 1.5T predecessor. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of an August 6–7 release window, supported by third-party confirmations from Arena.ai and reports of improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same V9 base. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 adds urgency to xAI’s compressed schedule, while a larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. Market-implied odds hinge on whether xAI meets this accelerated target or encounters last-minute training or deployment slips common in frontier model rollouts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,356วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week set the dominant timeline, aligning with xAI’s rapid post-Grok 4.5 cadence after the mid-July launch of its 1.5T predecessor. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of an August 6–7 release window, supported by third-party confirmations from Arena.ai and reports of improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same V9 base. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 adds urgency to xAI’s compressed schedule, while a larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. Market-implied odds hinge on whether xAI meets this accelerated target or encounters last-minute training or deployment slips common in frontier model rollouts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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