Recent MetService forecasts and model guidance indicate a shift toward cooler southerly airflow over Wellington by August 16, supporting the market’s strong consensus around a 10°C daily maximum. This reflects typical mid-August variability, where the city’s long-term average high sits near 12°C but daily outcomes often range 9–14°C depending on wind direction and cloud cover. Recent days have seen warmer readings of 13–14°C under lighter northerly influences, yet the developing southerlies are expected to cap temperatures, aligning with the 64% implied probability for 10°C and secondary support for 9–11°C outcomes. Updated official guidance ahead of the weekend will likely refine these probabilities further.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 64%
11°C 17%
9°C 15%
12°C 3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
15%
10°C
64%
11°C
17%
12°C
3%
13°C
3%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 64%
11°C 17%
9°C 15%
12°C 3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$223 ปริมาณ
<1%
5°C
$211 ปริมาณ
<1%
6°C
$164 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$35 ปริมาณ
1%
8°C
$193 ปริมาณ
3%
9°C
$392 ปริมาณ
15%
10°C
$1,270 ปริมาณ
64%
11°C
$342 ปริมาณ
17%
12°C
$203 ปริมาณ
3%
13°C
$5 ปริมาณ
3%
14°C or higher
$5 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts and model guidance indicate a shift toward cooler southerly airflow over Wellington by August 16, supporting the market’s strong consensus around a 10°C daily maximum. This reflects typical mid-August variability, where the city’s long-term average high sits near 12°C but daily outcomes often range 9–14°C depending on wind direction and cloud cover. Recent days have seen warmer readings of 13–14°C under lighter northerly influences, yet the developing southerlies are expected to cap temperatures, aligning with the 64% implied probability for 10°C and secondary support for 9–11°C outcomes. Updated official guidance ahead of the weekend will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,042วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts and model guidance indicate a shift toward cooler southerly airflow over Wellington by August 16, supporting the market’s strong consensus around a 10°C daily maximum. This reflects typical mid-August variability, where the city’s long-term average high sits near 12°C but daily outcomes often range 9–14°C depending on wind direction and cloud cover. Recent days have seen warmer readings of 13–14°C under lighter northerly influences, yet the developing southerlies are expected to cap temperatures, aligning with the 64% implied probability for 10°C and secondary support for 9–11°C outcomes. Updated official guidance ahead of the weekend will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,042วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService forecasts and model guidance indicate a shift toward cooler southerly airflow over Wellington by August 16, supporting the market’s strong consensus around a 10°C daily maximum. This reflects typical mid-August variability, where the city’s long-term average high sits near 12°C but daily outcomes often range 9–14°C depending on wind direction and cloud cover. Recent days have seen warmer readings of 13–14°C under lighter northerly influences, yet the developing southerlies are expected to cap temperatures, aligning with the 64% implied probability for 10°C and secondary support for 9–11°C outcomes. Updated official guidance ahead of the weekend will likely refine these probabilities further.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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