Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects heightened uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike on February 28, 2026, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei's swift naming as successor by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. Recent reports from the past week indicate Mojtaba was injured in an airstrike, suffering disfigurement or loss of a limb, with no public appearances since, fueling speculation of incapacity and IRGC power struggles. President Pezeshkian's reported resignation bids were rebuffed amid the crisis. Ongoing hostilities, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, could trigger further transitions, though institutional procedures favor clerical continuity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$9,232,171 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
30 เมษายน
4%
31 พฤษภาคม
10%
30 มิถุนายน
15%
31 ธันวาคม
29%
$9,232,171 ปริมาณ
30 เมษายน
$3,208,862 ปริมาณ
4%
31 พฤษภาคม
$533,386 ปริมาณ
10%
30 มิถุนายน
$474,507 ปริมาณ
15%
31 ธันวาคม
$1,784,494 ปริมาณ
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects heightened uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike on February 28, 2026, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei's swift naming as successor by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. Recent reports from the past week indicate Mojtaba was injured in an airstrike, suffering disfigurement or loss of a limb, with no public appearances since, fueling speculation of incapacity and IRGC power struggles. President Pezeshkian's reported resignation bids were rebuffed amid the crisis. Ongoing hostilities, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, could trigger further transitions, though institutional procedures favor clerical continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,232,171วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects heightened uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike on February 28, 2026, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei's swift naming as successor by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. Recent reports from the past week indicate Mojtaba was injured in an airstrike, suffering disfigurement or loss of a limb, with no public appearances since, fueling speculation of incapacity and IRGC power struggles. President Pezeshkian's reported resignation bids were rebuffed amid the crisis. Ongoing hostilities, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, could trigger further transitions, though institutional procedures favor clerical continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,232,171วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects heightened uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike on February 28, 2026, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei's swift naming as successor by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. Recent reports from the past week indicate Mojtaba was injured in an airstrike, suffering disfigurement or loss of a limb, with no public appearances since, fueling speculation of incapacity and IRGC power struggles. President Pezeshkian's reported resignation bids were rebuffed amid the crisis. Ongoing hostilities, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, could trigger further transitions, though institutional procedures favor clerical continuity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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