The Islamic Republic has endured recent military confrontations with the United States and Israel, reaching a ceasefire without regime collapse or leadership transition, which has reinforced trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume power in 2026. Pahlavi remains in exile, positioning himself as a transitional figure rather than a direct claimant, yet his movement has faced donor dissatisfaction, limited verified domestic coordination, and explicit distancing by the Trump administration, including public statements from Vice President JD Vance ruling out any U.S. intent to install him. Domestic polling shows moderate favorability among some Iranians, but this has not translated into organized momentum capable of displacing the current security-focused governance structure. Scenarios that could still shift odds include verified large-scale defections within Iranian institutions or sudden escalation leading to verified power vacuum, though such developments remain unconfirmed and outside the immediate resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วReza Pahlavi จะเป็นผู้นำอิหร่านในปี 2026 หรือไม่?
Reza Pahlavi จะเป็นผู้นำอิหร่านในปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
3% โอกาส
$11,761,033 ปริมาณ
$11,761,033 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
3% โอกาส
$11,761,033 ปริมาณ
$11,761,033 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic has endured recent military confrontations with the United States and Israel, reaching a ceasefire without regime collapse or leadership transition, which has reinforced trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume power in 2026. Pahlavi remains in exile, positioning himself as a transitional figure rather than a direct claimant, yet his movement has faced donor dissatisfaction, limited verified domestic coordination, and explicit distancing by the Trump administration, including public statements from Vice President JD Vance ruling out any U.S. intent to install him. Domestic polling shows moderate favorability among some Iranians, but this has not translated into organized momentum capable of displacing the current security-focused governance structure. Scenarios that could still shift odds include verified large-scale defections within Iranian institutions or sudden escalation leading to verified power vacuum, though such developments remain unconfirmed and outside the immediate resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,761,033วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic has endured recent military confrontations with the United States and Israel, reaching a ceasefire without regime collapse or leadership transition, which has reinforced trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume power in 2026. Pahlavi remains in exile, positioning himself as a transitional figure rather than a direct claimant, yet his movement has faced donor dissatisfaction, limited verified domestic coordination, and explicit distancing by the Trump administration, including public statements from Vice President JD Vance ruling out any U.S. intent to install him. Domestic polling shows moderate favorability among some Iranians, but this has not translated into organized momentum capable of displacing the current security-focused governance structure. Scenarios that could still shift odds include verified large-scale defections within Iranian institutions or sudden escalation leading to verified power vacuum, though such developments remain unconfirmed and outside the immediate resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,761,033วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has endured recent military confrontations with the United States and Israel, reaching a ceasefire without regime collapse or leadership transition, which has reinforced trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume power in 2026. Pahlavi remains in exile, positioning himself as a transitional figure rather than a direct claimant, yet his movement has faced donor dissatisfaction, limited verified domestic coordination, and explicit distancing by the Trump administration, including public statements from Vice President JD Vance ruling out any U.S. intent to install him. Domestic polling shows moderate favorability among some Iranians, but this has not translated into organized momentum capable of displacing the current security-focused governance structure. Scenarios that could still shift odds include verified large-scale defections within Iranian institutions or sudden escalation leading to verified power vacuum, though such developments remain unconfirmed and outside the immediate resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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