Tensions between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have escalated sharply following the 2026 conflict, during which Iran launched thousands of missiles and drones at UAE targets in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The UAE responded by closing its embassy in Tehran, imposing an indefinite trade embargo after August 2026 accusations of Iranian ballistic missile launches toward its waters, and accelerating defense cooperation with Israel and the United States. Iranian officials have issued warnings of severe responses to any further foreign military action, while sporadic claims of strikes on UAE-based U.S. assets have emerged amid shaky ceasefires and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics, combined with the UAE's alignment against Tehran and ongoing regional proxy risks, shape trader assessments of near-term targeting probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
ใหม่
Sep 15, 2026
September 15
43%
September 30
42%
$183 ปริมาณ
September 15
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
September 30
$183 ปริมาณ
42%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have escalated sharply following the 2026 conflict, during which Iran launched thousands of missiles and drones at UAE targets in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The UAE responded by closing its embassy in Tehran, imposing an indefinite trade embargo after August 2026 accusations of Iranian ballistic missile launches toward its waters, and accelerating defense cooperation with Israel and the United States. Iranian officials have issued warnings of severe responses to any further foreign military action, while sporadic claims of strikes on UAE-based U.S. assets have emerged amid shaky ceasefires and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics, combined with the UAE's alignment against Tehran and ongoing regional proxy risks, shape trader assessments of near-term targeting probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 8, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$183วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 8, 2026, 2:46 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have escalated sharply following the 2026 conflict, during which Iran launched thousands of missiles and drones at UAE targets in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The UAE responded by closing its embassy in Tehran, imposing an indefinite trade embargo after August 2026 accusations of Iranian ballistic missile launches toward its waters, and accelerating defense cooperation with Israel and the United States. Iranian officials have issued warnings of severe responses to any further foreign military action, while sporadic claims of strikes on UAE-based U.S. assets have emerged amid shaky ceasefires and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics, combined with the UAE's alignment against Tehran and ongoing regional proxy risks, shape trader assessments of near-term targeting probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$183วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 8, 2026, 2:46 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have escalated sharply following the 2026 conflict, during which Iran launched thousands of missiles and drones at UAE targets in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The UAE responded by closing its embassy in Tehran, imposing an indefinite trade embargo after August 2026 accusations of Iranian ballistic missile launches toward its waters, and accelerating defense cooperation with Israel and the United States. Iranian officials have issued warnings of severe responses to any further foreign military action, while sporadic claims of strikes on UAE-based U.S. assets have emerged amid shaky ceasefires and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics, combined with the UAE's alignment against Tehran and ongoing regional proxy risks, shape trader assessments of near-term targeting probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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