U.S. military operations against Iran, which began with joint airstrikes in late February 2026, have remained centered on targeted strikes against nuclear, missile, and coastal facilities along with economic sanctions to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple cease-fire efforts, including the April Islamabad memorandum and June memorandum of understanding, collapsed amid renewed exchanges, yet Washington has consistently avoided committing ground forces for a full invasion. Recent intelligence assessments through early September highlight Iran's growing confidence and resilience without signs of regime collapse or capitulation that would prompt escalation to large-scale occupation. Analysts note substantial logistical, political, and congressional barriers to deploying the hundreds of thousands of troops required, favoring instead limited naval or special operations options. Trader pricing at 85.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects this sustained preference for coercive air and economic pressure over direct ground intervention.