Ongoing U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran since late February 2026 have centered on airstrikes, missile campaigns, and naval blockades targeting nuclear, missile, and naval sites, without committing ground forces to seize or hold territory. Diplomatic talks mediated by Pakistan and Oman, including recent exchanges on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear limits, have produced intermittent ceasefires and proposals through May and early June 2026, sustaining trader expectations of de-escalation. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have signaled openness to agreements while avoiding deadlines for invasion, and no large-scale troop deployments or occupation plans have materialized. These factors underpin the 84.5% implied probability that no U.S. invasion occurs before 2027, though renewed escalation remains possible if negotiations collapse.