Despite U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and a naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated after failed direct talks in early April, trader consensus reflects a 75.5% implied probability against a full ground invasion before 2027, driven by ongoing Pakistan-mediated ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's expressed optimism for a deal. Recent developments include a conditional two-week truce starting April 7, clarification that the blockade spares the Strait of Hormuz to limit escalation, and House rejection of a force withdrawal resolution amid public polls viewing actions as excessive. With over 50,000 U.S. troops positioned regionally but focused on air and sea operations, diplomats eye a second round of talks soon, underscoring high logistical barriers and diplomatic off-ramps in this protracted conflict.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วสหรัฐฯจะรุกรานอิหร่านก่อนปี 2027 หรือไม่?
สหรัฐฯจะรุกรานอิหร่านก่อนปี 2027 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$11,944,772 ปริมาณ
$11,944,772 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$11,944,772 ปริมาณ
$11,944,772 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and a naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated after failed direct talks in early April, trader consensus reflects a 75.5% implied probability against a full ground invasion before 2027, driven by ongoing Pakistan-mediated ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's expressed optimism for a deal. Recent developments include a conditional two-week truce starting April 7, clarification that the blockade spares the Strait of Hormuz to limit escalation, and House rejection of a force withdrawal resolution amid public polls viewing actions as excessive. With over 50,000 U.S. troops positioned regionally but focused on air and sea operations, diplomats eye a second round of talks soon, underscoring high logistical barriers and diplomatic off-ramps in this protracted conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,944,772วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and a naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated after failed direct talks in early April, trader consensus reflects a 75.5% implied probability against a full ground invasion before 2027, driven by ongoing Pakistan-mediated ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's expressed optimism for a deal. Recent developments include a conditional two-week truce starting April 7, clarification that the blockade spares the Strait of Hormuz to limit escalation, and House rejection of a force withdrawal resolution amid public polls viewing actions as excessive. With over 50,000 U.S. troops positioned regionally but focused on air and sea operations, diplomats eye a second round of talks soon, underscoring high logistical barriers and diplomatic off-ramps in this protracted conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,944,772วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and a naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated after failed direct talks in early April, trader consensus reflects a 75.5% implied probability against a full ground invasion before 2027, driven by ongoing Pakistan-mediated ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's expressed optimism for a deal. Recent developments include a conditional two-week truce starting April 7, clarification that the blockade spares the Strait of Hormuz to limit escalation, and House rejection of a force withdrawal resolution amid public polls viewing actions as excessive. With over 50,000 U.S. troops positioned regionally but focused on air and sea operations, diplomats eye a second round of talks soon, underscoring high logistical barriers and diplomatic off-ramps in this protracted conflict.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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