U.S. military engagement with Iran has centered on extensive airstrikes, a naval blockade, and targeted operations since February 2026 rather than any ground invasion to seize territory. Following the initial February 28 strikes that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded Iranian military capabilities, a conditional ceasefire took effect in April, shifting focus to ongoing bilateral negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear material disposal, and conflict termination. President Trump has repeatedly signaled a preference for winding down operations and diplomatic off-ramps, with no confirmed U.S. troop deployments for territorial objectives as of June 2026. Traders price the 84.5% probability on "No" accordingly, reflecting the high costs and risks of a full invasion alongside the current emphasis on air power, economic pressure, and talks that could extend through the remainder of the year.