U.S. and Israeli strikes launched in late February 2026 under Operation Epic Fury targeted Iranian leadership, nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and naval assets through airstrikes and naval blockades, without committing ground forces to seize or hold territory. A ceasefire took effect in early April, followed by indirect negotiations mediated by third parties addressing nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. Pentagon planning and public statements have emphasized capability degradation and diplomatic off-ramps over occupation, consistent with historical reluctance for large-scale invasions. These developments sustain the 84.5% trader consensus on No, as current military posture and talks through mid-2026 show no movement toward the ground offensive required for market resolution before 2027.