Recent forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models indicates the lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29 will likely fall between 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities concentrated on these outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are suppressing daytime heating and limiting overnight radiative cooling, producing cooler-than-average conditions relative to the typical late-August minimum near 23°C. Updated model runs emphasize high precipitation probabilities through the night, which further moderates temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and maintaining a stable, moist boundary layer. Traders appear to be weighting these dynamical factors heavily ahead of final observations, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside the 21–23°C range due to limited variability in current guidance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
22°C 45%
21°C 28%
23°C 18%
24°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
28%
22°C
45%
23°C
18%
24°C
8%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
22°C 45%
21°C 28%
23°C 18%
24°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$132 ปริมาณ
3%
20°C
$11 ปริมาณ
3%
21°C
$178 ปริมาณ
28%
22°C
$88 ปริมาณ
45%
23°C
$417 ปริมาณ
18%
24°C
$83 ปริมาณ
8%
25°C
$146 ปริมาณ
4%
26°C
$119 ปริมาณ
2%
27°C
$121 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$5 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C or higher
$69 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models indicates the lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29 will likely fall between 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities concentrated on these outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are suppressing daytime heating and limiting overnight radiative cooling, producing cooler-than-average conditions relative to the typical late-August minimum near 23°C. Updated model runs emphasize high precipitation probabilities through the night, which further moderates temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and maintaining a stable, moist boundary layer. Traders appear to be weighting these dynamical factors heavily ahead of final observations, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside the 21–23°C range due to limited variability in current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,368วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models indicates the lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29 will likely fall between 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities concentrated on these outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are suppressing daytime heating and limiting overnight radiative cooling, producing cooler-than-average conditions relative to the typical late-August minimum near 23°C. Updated model runs emphasize high precipitation probabilities through the night, which further moderates temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and maintaining a stable, moist boundary layer. Traders appear to be weighting these dynamical factors heavily ahead of final observations, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside the 21–23°C range due to limited variability in current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,368วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models indicates the lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29 will likely fall between 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities concentrated on these outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are suppressing daytime heating and limiting overnight radiative cooling, producing cooler-than-average conditions relative to the typical late-August minimum near 23°C. Updated model runs emphasize high precipitation probabilities through the night, which further moderates temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and maintaining a stable, moist boundary layer. Traders appear to be weighting these dynamical factors heavily ahead of final observations, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside the 21–23°C range due to limited variability in current guidance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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