Anthony Constantino holds an 80.5% implied probability in the NY-21 Republican primary while Robert Smullen stands at 18.0%, reflecting trader consensus around the impact of external endorsements and candidate profiles. Constantino, a businessman and Sticker Mule CEO, benefits from President Trump’s backing in a district long represented by Elise Stefanik, which has helped consolidate support among Republican voters ahead of the June 23 primary. Smullen, a state assemblyman and retired Marine Corps colonel, has emphasized his legislative experience and local ties across the 15-county district while securing recent backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Both candidates debated in late May on issues including the economy, border security, and energy policy, with early voting scheduled to begin June 13. The wide gap in current pricing aligns with historical patterns where high-profile national endorsements often prove decisive in low-turnout congressional primaries.