OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra has cleared internal safety thresholds and will be released “soon” has driven the 79.6% market-implied probability for a September 3 launch. The model is the first designated “Critical” under the company’s Preparedness Framework, reflecting demonstrated ability to identify and exploit novel vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, as shown by perfect ExploitBench scores and zero-day findings in internal tests. Following delays tied to the July Hugging Face incident, OpenAI added refusal training, chain-of-thought monitoring, and restricted advanced cyber features to vetted testers and its Daybreak Blue program at launch. Traders appear to view the timing as aligned with competitive pressure from recent Anthropic releases and the absence of further regulatory hurdles, though the lack of an explicit date leaves modest room for a one- or two-day slip.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOpenAI's Astra released on...?
OpenAI's Astra released on...?
September 3 79.6%
On or prior to September 2 5.8%
September 24 4.6%
No release by September 30 5%
ใหม่
$32,836 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$32,836 ปริมาณ
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
6%
September 3
80%
September 4
1%
September 5
<1%
September 6
<1%
September 7
2%
September 8
2%
September 9
2%
September 10
2%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
<1%
September 14
1%
September 15
2%
September 16
1%
September 17
4%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
1%
September 23
1%
September 24
5%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
5%
September 3 79.6%
On or prior to September 2 5.8%
September 24 4.6%
No release by September 30 5%
ใหม่
$32,836 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$32,836 ปริมาณ
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
$2,039 ปริมาณ
6%
September 3
$4,202 ปริมาณ
80%
September 4
$2,046 ปริมาณ
1%
September 5
$1,193 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 6
$842 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 7
$750 ปริมาณ
2%
September 8
$611 ปริมาณ
2%
September 9
$610 ปริมาณ
2%
September 10
$810 ปริมาณ
2%
September 11
$733 ปริมาณ
1%
September 12
$733 ปริมาณ
1%
September 13
$829 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 14
$766 ปริมาณ
1%
September 15
$1,185 ปริมาณ
2%
September 16
$855 ปริมาณ
1%
September 17
$855 ปริมาณ
4%
September 18
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 19
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 20
$855 ปริมาณ
1%
September 21
$1,015 ปริมาณ
2%
September 22
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 23
$712 ปริมาณ
1%
September 24
$1,780 ปริมาณ
5%
September 25
$1,015 ปริมาณ
1%
September 26
$712 ปริมาณ
1%
September 27
$1,433 ปริมาณ
1%
September 28
$1,121 ปริมาณ
1%
September 29
$755 ปริมาณ
1%
September 30
$765 ปริมาณ
1%
No release by September 30
$1,349 ปริมาณ
5%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra has cleared internal safety thresholds and will be released “soon” has driven the 79.6% market-implied probability for a September 3 launch. The model is the first designated “Critical” under the company’s Preparedness Framework, reflecting demonstrated ability to identify and exploit novel vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, as shown by perfect ExploitBench scores and zero-day findings in internal tests. Following delays tied to the July Hugging Face incident, OpenAI added refusal training, chain-of-thought monitoring, and restricted advanced cyber features to vetted testers and its Daybreak Blue program at launch. Traders appear to view the timing as aligned with competitive pressure from recent Anthropic releases and the absence of further regulatory hurdles, though the lack of an explicit date leaves modest room for a one- or two-day slip.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,836วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra has cleared internal safety thresholds and will be released “soon” has driven the 79.6% market-implied probability for a September 3 launch. The model is the first designated “Critical” under the company’s Preparedness Framework, reflecting demonstrated ability to identify and exploit novel vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, as shown by perfect ExploitBench scores and zero-day findings in internal tests. Following delays tied to the July Hugging Face incident, OpenAI added refusal training, chain-of-thought monitoring, and restricted advanced cyber features to vetted testers and its Daybreak Blue program at launch. Traders appear to view the timing as aligned with competitive pressure from recent Anthropic releases and the absence of further regulatory hurdles, though the lack of an explicit date leaves modest room for a one- or two-day slip.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,836วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra has cleared internal safety thresholds and will be released “soon” has driven the 79.6% market-implied probability for a September 3 launch. The model is the first designated “Critical” under the company’s Preparedness Framework, reflecting demonstrated ability to identify and exploit novel vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, as shown by perfect ExploitBench scores and zero-day findings in internal tests. Following delays tied to the July Hugging Face incident, OpenAI added refusal training, chain-of-thought monitoring, and restricted advanced cyber features to vetted testers and its Daybreak Blue program at launch. Traders appear to view the timing as aligned with competitive pressure from recent Anthropic releases and the absence of further regulatory hurdles, though the lack of an explicit date leaves modest room for a one- or two-day slip.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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