Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the market's strong preference for its high and max effort settings, which together hold over 92% implied probability. The model delivers state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, ARC-AGI 3 reasoning, and knowledge-work evaluations at half the cost of Fable 5 while using a 1M-token context window and configurable effort levels. Traders view these variants as the most likely to top leaderboards such as arena.ai or Artificial Analysis on September 7, given sustained leads over recent competitors including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and xAI's Grok 4.6. No major new releases have displaced it in the past month, though the short window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-opus-5-high 67%
claude-opus-5-max 26%
Other 6.6%
claude-opus-4-6-high 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
67%
claude-opus-5-max
26%
Other
7%
claude-opus-4-6-high
6%
claude-opus-5-high 67%
claude-opus-5-max 26%
Other 6.6%
claude-opus-4-6-high 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$44 ปริมาณ
67%
claude-opus-5-max
$40 ปริมาณ
26%
Other
$20 ปริมาณ
7%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$81 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the market's strong preference for its high and max effort settings, which together hold over 92% implied probability. The model delivers state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, ARC-AGI 3 reasoning, and knowledge-work evaluations at half the cost of Fable 5 while using a 1M-token context window and configurable effort levels. Traders view these variants as the most likely to top leaderboards such as arena.ai or Artificial Analysis on September 7, given sustained leads over recent competitors including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and xAI's Grok 4.6. No major new releases have displaced it in the past month, though the short window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or model updates.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$184วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the market's strong preference for its high and max effort settings, which together hold over 92% implied probability. The model delivers state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, ARC-AGI 3 reasoning, and knowledge-work evaluations at half the cost of Fable 5 while using a 1M-token context window and configurable effort levels. Traders view these variants as the most likely to top leaderboards such as arena.ai or Artificial Analysis on September 7, given sustained leads over recent competitors including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and xAI's Grok 4.6. No major new releases have displaced it in the past month, though the short window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or model updates.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$184วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the market's strong preference for its high and max effort settings, which together hold over 92% implied probability. The model delivers state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, ARC-AGI 3 reasoning, and knowledge-work evaluations at half the cost of Fable 5 while using a 1M-token context window and configurable effort levels. Traders view these variants as the most likely to top leaderboards such as arena.ai or Artificial Analysis on September 7, given sustained leads over recent competitors including OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and xAI's Grok 4.6. No major new releases have displaced it in the past month, though the short window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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