**Strong trader consensus favors "Under" at 95% implied probability because recent sales data for the high-profile Pikachu ex Special Illustration Rare from the Ascended Heroes set show raw and near-mint copies trading well below the $1,093.18 threshold.** After peaking above $1,300 earlier in 2026 amid initial hype, the card’s market price has steadily declined through summer, with August listings and completed eBay sales clustering in the $900–$1,000 range or lower depending on condition and platform. No fresh catalysts—such as new set releases, major grading population shifts, or viral collector demand—have emerged in the past week to reverse the downward trajectory. While a last-minute surge in social-media buzz or unexpected bulk buying could theoretically push a single day’s average above the line, the consistent recent volume and lack of momentum make such an overnight reversal highly improbable.