The Uprising, Paul Greengrass’s R-rated historical drama about the 1381 Peasants’ Revolt starring Andrew Garfield, opens September 10-11 with modest tracking that explains why traders assign the strongest implied probability to a sub-$4.5 million domestic weekend. Focus Features and Blumhouse are positioning the film as a Robin Hood origin story through trailers and a Fortnite tie-in, yet the period setting, limited star-driven appeal beyond Garfield, and crowded early-September slate have kept advance sales and social buzz subdued. No major guild or critic precursors exist yet, and comparable mid-budget dramas rarely break out without stronger presales or viral momentum. The market’s spread across higher brackets reflects uncertainty around last-minute walk-up business and word-of-mouth once reviews land, but current sentiment favors a restrained debut.