Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four others earlier in 2026 driven by impaired capital, concentrated commercial loan losses, and undercapitalization, have elevated trader awareness of sector vulnerabilities. With the FDIC noting five resolutions year-to-date and reports highlighting private-credit expansion alongside repo-market risks, market-implied odds of 63% for at least one additional failure by year-end reflect ongoing credit and liquidity pressures rather than systemic contagion. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming economic data releases and any shifts in Fed policy that could influence regional-bank funding costs and asset quality through December.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS bank failure by December 31, 2026?
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
63% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
63% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four others earlier in 2026 driven by impaired capital, concentrated commercial loan losses, and undercapitalization, have elevated trader awareness of sector vulnerabilities. With the FDIC noting five resolutions year-to-date and reports highlighting private-credit expansion alongside repo-market risks, market-implied odds of 63% for at least one additional failure by year-end reflect ongoing credit and liquidity pressures rather than systemic contagion. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming economic data releases and any shifts in Fed policy that could influence regional-bank funding costs and asset quality through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$91วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four others earlier in 2026 driven by impaired capital, concentrated commercial loan losses, and undercapitalization, have elevated trader awareness of sector vulnerabilities. With the FDIC noting five resolutions year-to-date and reports highlighting private-credit expansion alongside repo-market risks, market-implied odds of 63% for at least one additional failure by year-end reflect ongoing credit and liquidity pressures rather than systemic contagion. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming economic data releases and any shifts in Fed policy that could influence regional-bank funding costs and asset quality through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$91วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four others earlier in 2026 driven by impaired capital, concentrated commercial loan losses, and undercapitalization, have elevated trader awareness of sector vulnerabilities. With the FDIC noting five resolutions year-to-date and reports highlighting private-credit expansion alongside repo-market risks, market-implied odds of 63% for at least one additional failure by year-end reflect ongoing credit and liquidity pressures rather than systemic contagion. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming economic data releases and any shifts in Fed policy that could influence regional-bank funding costs and asset quality through December.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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