**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have driven market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting to 94%.** Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications, including hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that “inflation is a choice,” have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. August employment data exceeded expectations while core PCE and CPI readings remained elevated, prompting banks such as UBS and BofA to forecast hikes in September and December. The current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% now faces upward pressure, with futures pricing roughly 23–25 basis points of tightening at the upcoming decision. Still, cooler inflation prints or geopolitical easing in energy prices could temper the pace, though near-term data momentum supports the prevailing hawkish tilt.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhat will be the next Fed rate change?
What will be the next Fed rate change?
Hike
94% โอกาส
$14,845 ปริมาณ
$14,845 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
94% โอกาส
$14,845 ปริมาณ
$14,845 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have driven market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting to 94%.** Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications, including hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that “inflation is a choice,” have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. August employment data exceeded expectations while core PCE and CPI readings remained elevated, prompting banks such as UBS and BofA to forecast hikes in September and December. The current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% now faces upward pressure, with futures pricing roughly 23–25 basis points of tightening at the upcoming decision. Still, cooler inflation prints or geopolitical easing in energy prices could temper the pace, though near-term data momentum supports the prevailing hawkish tilt.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,845วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have driven market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting to 94%.** Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications, including hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that “inflation is a choice,” have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. August employment data exceeded expectations while core PCE and CPI readings remained elevated, prompting banks such as UBS and BofA to forecast hikes in September and December. The current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% now faces upward pressure, with futures pricing roughly 23–25 basis points of tightening at the upcoming decision. Still, cooler inflation prints or geopolitical easing in energy prices could temper the pace, though near-term data momentum supports the prevailing hawkish tilt.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,845วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have driven market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting to 94%.** Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications, including hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that “inflation is a choice,” have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. August employment data exceeded expectations while core PCE and CPI readings remained elevated, prompting banks such as UBS and BofA to forecast hikes in September and December. The current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% now faces upward pressure, with futures pricing roughly 23–25 basis points of tightening at the upcoming decision. Still, cooler inflation prints or geopolitical easing in energy prices could temper the pace, though near-term data momentum supports the prevailing hawkish tilt.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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