**US regulatory and geopolitical risks, combined with CXMT's capacity constraints, are the main factors behind the 75.5% market-implied probability that Apple will not purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration for assurances against tighter restrictions on ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms. While this designation does not currently ban commercial purchases, it raises reputational and contracting concerns, and the company faces potential addition to the Commerce Department’s Entity List, which would impose licensing requirements. Reports from mid-2026 indicate Apple began testing CXMT DRAM for devices sold in China and held early talks, driven by AI-fueled DRAM price surges that prompted Apple to raise prices on Macs, iPads, and other hardware. However, no supply agreements have been confirmed. CXMT’s capacity is another major barrier. The company runs at roughly 95% utilization and is fully booked through 2027. Its projected output cannot fully meet even Apple’s estimated China-related DRAM demand (around 600 million GB), limiting any potential role to a small share of supply for the Chinese market. CXMT has advanced its technology—reaching mass production of LPDDR6 used in Xiaomi flagships and expanding HBM capacity—but remains focused on domestic and select non-US customers. Traders appear to view these political, capacity, and historical precedent factors (prior US pushback on similar Chinese suppliers like YMTC) as outweighing Apple’s cost-driven interest. Key near-term catalysts include any US government decisions on export controls or Entity List status, as well as public confirmation of a supply deal. The current trader consensus reflects the high uncertainty and barriers typical in US-China semiconductor supply chains.