Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence and supply-chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production for fall 2026 underpin the 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Recent supplier comments from Pegatron and others highlight prioritization of higher-margin Pro models amid memory and chip constraints, supporting an early-September event alongside a possible foldable iPhone Ultra. While the standard iPhone 18 may shift to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro lineup as satisfying the market criteria. Potential disruptions remain limited to severe component shortages or regulatory hurdles, but current timelines and Apple’s track record make such outcomes improbable before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว99% โอกาส
$175,416 ปริมาณ
$175,416 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
99% โอกาส
$175,416 ปริมาณ
$175,416 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence and supply-chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production for fall 2026 underpin the 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Recent supplier comments from Pegatron and others highlight prioritization of higher-margin Pro models amid memory and chip constraints, supporting an early-September event alongside a possible foldable iPhone Ultra. While the standard iPhone 18 may shift to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro lineup as satisfying the market criteria. Potential disruptions remain limited to severe component shortages or regulatory hurdles, but current timelines and Apple’s track record make such outcomes improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$175,416วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence and supply-chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production for fall 2026 underpin the 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Recent supplier comments from Pegatron and others highlight prioritization of higher-margin Pro models amid memory and chip constraints, supporting an early-September event alongside a possible foldable iPhone Ultra. While the standard iPhone 18 may shift to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro lineup as satisfying the market criteria. Potential disruptions remain limited to severe component shortages or regulatory hurdles, but current timelines and Apple’s track record make such outcomes improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$175,416วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-standing September launch cadence and supply-chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production for fall 2026 underpin the 98.8% market-implied odds for a 2026 release. Recent supplier comments from Pegatron and others highlight prioritization of higher-margin Pro models amid memory and chip constraints, supporting an early-September event alongside a possible foldable iPhone Ultra. While the standard iPhone 18 may shift to spring 2027 under a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro lineup as satisfying the market criteria. Potential disruptions remain limited to severe component shortages or regulatory hurdles, but current timelines and Apple’s track record make such outcomes improbable before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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