Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$253,443 Vol.
$253,443 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
No
2nd hottest
Yes
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
2nd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$253,443 Vol.
$253,443 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$30,795 Vol.
No
2nd hottest
$14,779 Vol.
Yes
3rd hottest
$78,913 Vol.
No
4th or lower
$128,955 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Volume
$253,443Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$253,443Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong