**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the formal succession process underway for a successor to begin in January 2027.** The selection began in late 2025 with nominations, followed by interactive dialogues, a July town hall, and Security Council straw polls in July and August 2026 that have not produced a clear frontrunner among the eight candidates. Recent September 2026 reporting shows Guterres actively participating in UN affairs, including addressing AI risks ahead of the General Assembly debate and confirming his departure at year-end while planning a return to Portugal. No verified announcements, diplomatic actions, or institutional moves indicate an early resignation or removal. The U.S. position against any extension beyond the term end reinforces a clean transition rather than disruption. With the market resolving Yes only on an early exit before December 31, trader pricing at 56% for No aligns with the absence of catalysts for premature departure and the predictable completion of the fixed term.