Trader consensus points to Maine, Texas, and Alaska as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate race, driven by a combination of moderate Republican incumbents facing diverse electorates and states where partisan leans have produced narrow historical margins. Primary outcomes, candidate recruitment, and early fundraising in these and other listed contests such as Iowa and the Ohio special election shape perceptions of potential tightness. State-level polling trends, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, and the broader national environment remain central variables. With probabilities distributed across numerous races and no dominant favorite, shifts in endorsements, debate performances, or late-cycle developments could separate the field before November voting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMaine 17%
Texas 16%
Alaska 13%
Iowa 10.7%
$23,297 Vol.
$23,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Maine
17%
Texas
16%
Alaska
13%
Iowa
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Hampshire
4%
Florida (Special)
4%
New Mexico
4%
North Carolina
3%
Colorado
3%
Georgia
3%
Virginia
2%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Maine 17%
Texas 16%
Alaska 13%
Iowa 10.7%
$23,297 Vol.
$23,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Maine
$460 Vol.
17%
Texas
$367 Vol.
16%
Alaska
$4,928 Vol.
13%
Iowa
$2,420 Vol.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$3,527 Vol.
10%
Michigan
$1,567 Vol.
6%
Nebraska
$256 Vol.
5%
New Hampshire
$480 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$196 Vol.
4%
New Mexico
$155 Vol.
4%
North Carolina
$541 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$657 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$747 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,017 Vol.
2%
Montana
$526 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,451 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus points to Maine, Texas, and Alaska as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate race, driven by a combination of moderate Republican incumbents facing diverse electorates and states where partisan leans have produced narrow historical margins. Primary outcomes, candidate recruitment, and early fundraising in these and other listed contests such as Iowa and the Ohio special election shape perceptions of potential tightness. State-level polling trends, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, and the broader national environment remain central variables. With probabilities distributed across numerous races and no dominant favorite, shifts in endorsements, debate performances, or late-cycle developments could separate the field before November voting.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$23,297Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus points to Maine, Texas, and Alaska as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate race, driven by a combination of moderate Republican incumbents facing diverse electorates and states where partisan leans have produced narrow historical margins. Primary outcomes, candidate recruitment, and early fundraising in these and other listed contests such as Iowa and the Ohio special election shape perceptions of potential tightness. State-level polling trends, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, and the broader national environment remain central variables. With probabilities distributed across numerous races and no dominant favorite, shifts in endorsements, debate performances, or late-cycle developments could separate the field before November voting.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,297Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus points to Maine, Texas, and Alaska as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate race, driven by a combination of moderate Republican incumbents facing diverse electorates and states where partisan leans have produced narrow historical margins. Primary outcomes, candidate recruitment, and early fundraising in these and other listed contests such as Iowa and the Ohio special election shape perceptions of potential tightness. State-level polling trends, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, and the broader national environment remain central variables. With probabilities distributed across numerous races and no dominant favorite, shifts in endorsements, debate performances, or late-cycle developments could separate the field before November voting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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