**El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward a significant event with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant near-term influence on first-snow timing across the northern tier.** Warmer Pacific waters are shifting the Pacific jet stream southward, favoring above-average temperatures and drier patterns over the Midwest and Northeast through early fall, which historically delays the first measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch per National Weather Service criteria at stations such as Chicago O’Hare, Detroit, and Central Park). High-elevation Rockies sites may see isolated September flakes, but the market cities typically record first snow in late October to mid-November on average. NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and updated seasonal model runs expected in the coming weeks will provide key data on temperature and precipitation anomalies that could shift implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
74%

Denver, CO by October 31
72%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
62%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
65%

Boston, MA by November 15
70%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
84%

Chicago, IL by November 15
80%

Denver, CO by November 15
90%

Detroit, MI by November 15
73%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
66%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
85%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
71%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
71%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
91%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
74%

Dallas, TX by November 30
10%

Denver, CO by November 30
91%

Detroit, MI by November 30
72%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
85%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
71%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
91%

Nashville, TN by November 30
38%

New York City, NY by November 30
73%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
72%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
71%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$2,122 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
74%

Denver, CO by October 31
72%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
62%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
65%

Boston, MA by November 15
70%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
84%

Chicago, IL by November 15
80%

Denver, CO by November 15
90%

Detroit, MI by November 15
73%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
66%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
85%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
71%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
71%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
91%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
74%

Dallas, TX by November 30
10%

Denver, CO by November 30
91%

Detroit, MI by November 30
72%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
85%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
71%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
91%

Nashville, TN by November 30
38%

New York City, NY by November 30
73%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
72%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
71%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
**El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward a significant event with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant near-term influence on first-snow timing across the northern tier.** Warmer Pacific waters are shifting the Pacific jet stream southward, favoring above-average temperatures and drier patterns over the Midwest and Northeast through early fall, which historically delays the first measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch per National Weather Service criteria at stations such as Chicago O’Hare, Detroit, and Central Park). High-elevation Rockies sites may see isolated September flakes, but the market cities typically record first snow in late October to mid-November on average. NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and updated seasonal model runs expected in the coming weeks will provide key data on temperature and precipitation anomalies that could shift implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update

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