Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that no hantavirus pandemic will occur in 2026, driven by the contained Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year and the virus’s established transmission biology. Official reports from WHO and CDC confirm roughly 11–13 cases and three deaths from that outbreak, with spread limited to prolonged close contact such as household or intimate exposure rather than efficient respiratory or casual transmission. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; only Andes virus shows documented person-to-person spread, and its reproductive number typically remains below 1, leading to natural fade-out. Surveillance through the 42-day incubation window found no sustained community chains, consistent with historical patterns of thousands of annual cases worldwide without pandemic emergence. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds would require genetic changes enabling sustained airborne or pre-symptomatic spread, though current genomic data show no such evolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3% tsansa
$18,192,212 Vol.
$18,192,212 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% tsansa
$18,192,212 Vol.
$18,192,212 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that no hantavirus pandemic will occur in 2026, driven by the contained Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year and the virus’s established transmission biology. Official reports from WHO and CDC confirm roughly 11–13 cases and three deaths from that outbreak, with spread limited to prolonged close contact such as household or intimate exposure rather than efficient respiratory or casual transmission. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; only Andes virus shows documented person-to-person spread, and its reproductive number typically remains below 1, leading to natural fade-out. Surveillance through the 42-day incubation window found no sustained community chains, consistent with historical patterns of thousands of annual cases worldwide without pandemic emergence. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds would require genetic changes enabling sustained airborne or pre-symptomatic spread, though current genomic data show no such evolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$18,192,212Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that no hantavirus pandemic will occur in 2026, driven by the contained Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year and the virus’s established transmission biology. Official reports from WHO and CDC confirm roughly 11–13 cases and three deaths from that outbreak, with spread limited to prolonged close contact such as household or intimate exposure rather than efficient respiratory or casual transmission. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; only Andes virus shows documented person-to-person spread, and its reproductive number typically remains below 1, leading to natural fade-out. Surveillance through the 42-day incubation window found no sustained community chains, consistent with historical patterns of thousands of annual cases worldwide without pandemic emergence. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds would require genetic changes enabling sustained airborne or pre-symptomatic spread, though current genomic data show no such evolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,192,212Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability that no hantavirus pandemic will occur in 2026, driven by the contained Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year and the virus’s established transmission biology. Official reports from WHO and CDC confirm roughly 11–13 cases and three deaths from that outbreak, with spread limited to prolonged close contact such as household or intimate exposure rather than efficient respiratory or casual transmission. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; only Andes virus shows documented person-to-person spread, and its reproductive number typically remains below 1, leading to natural fade-out. Surveillance through the 42-day incubation window found no sustained community chains, consistent with historical patterns of thousands of annual cases worldwide without pandemic emergence. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds would require genetic changes enabling sustained airborne or pre-symptomatic spread, though current genomic data show no such evolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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