The explosive Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, now the second-largest on record with over 5,700 confirmed cases and nearly 2,800 deaths across six provinces since its May declaration, anchors trader sentiment around continued transmission through the rest of 2026. Rapid community spread, insecurity in Ituri and North Kivu, and absent approved vaccines or treatments for this strain have outpaced contact tracing and fueled imported detections in Uganda (now resolved after its 42-day countdown) plus one case in France. Ongoing vaccination trials, expanded lab capacity, and cross-border mobility with neighbors like Rwanda or South Sudan represent key swing factors that could expand the list of affected countries before year-end, while successful containment would likely limit resolution to the current trio.